'What can one say about a presidential campaign one of whosemain theme is a hunt for herpes?' This could have been an importantelection, until the Republicans lost their nerve. They once thoughtthey had a mandate for the assault on the welfare state they hadpromised in their smashing electoral victory of November 1994. Thencame 1995, and three things happened.
First, the Republicans misplayed their hand, with tacticalblunders culminating in Newt Gingrich's gripe that he'd shut downthe government in part because Clinton had made him use the backdoor of Air Force One. Second, Clinton/Morris moved rhetorically tothe center. Third, and most important, the people -- sovereign andinfallible -- let on that they'd been bluffing all along aboutcutting government.
That was the key. The people, it turns out, really don't wantsmaller government. They want talk about smaller government.Indeed, they want their politicians to inveigh against governmentwith passion. Best of all is a Democrat doing the inveighing, as didClinton when he declared in his 1996 State of the Union Address that'the era of big government is over.' The claim was hollow (he thenwent on to list about two doz\en programs that he would imposeregardless); the applause, thunderous.Why? Because times are good. Post-Cold War America isdominant, prosperous and at peace. A people in such conditions is inno mood to be challenged.For all of the pop sociology about some vast 'anxious class,'this is the least anxious era since at least 1930. For all thehypochondriacal griping to pollsters, by any real measure --strikes, marches, protests, political radicalism (the country's No.1 political radical, by all accounts, is speaker of the House!) --today's electorate is, if not profoundly satisfied, then profoundlypacified.Such an electorate is wary of social experiments. Bill Clintonwas punished severely for his hubristic attempt to remake the entireU.S. health care system. And a conservative Congress was in turnslapped down for seriously trying to act out its pledge to dismantlethe welfare state.The Republicans read the polls, saw what a debacle theysuffered in the great Medicare-reforming, budg\et-balancinggovernment shutdown, and promptly gave up. Gave up ideologically,that is. They have ever since resolutely avoided ideological combat-- witness the festival of mush that was the San Diego convention,followed by Dole's effective abandonment of California'santi-ra\cial preferences referendum -- and by so doing, they haveturned this election into one of the most unimportant in postwarhistory.The differences between Clinton and Dole require amicroscope. Dole will cut your Medicare by $26 billion per year,Clinton by $19 billion. Dole wants smut and violence out of musiclyrics; Clinton will V-chip it off TV. Dole rails against marijuana;Clinton against tobacco.How low have the stakes gotten? Much of last week was taken upwith the great question of the president's medical records. ThatClinton is obvious\ly -- and by medical testimony -- as fit as anyman who ever has held office did not stop Dole from demanding fulldisclosure. What can one say about a presidential campaign one ofwhose main themes is a hunt for herpes?Once Republicans had given up on trying to reshape a realconservative agenda -- a 15 percent tax cut is an inducement, not anagenda -- they had given up the game.What was left to talk about? Character? The American peopleknow everything about the character of Clinton and Dole and havedecided it does not matter. In fact, they've seen this movie before.In 1992, when the character issue loomed much larger because Clintonwas the unknown challenger, they decided that it didn't matter. Andthey were right. The last four years have shown that presidentialcharacter and national well-being can be quite independentvariables.The Republicans, perplexed by the country's ideologicallethargy, have acquiesced to it, running a cloying 'We care too'convention followed by a feeble 'Cut Medicare? Who me?' campaign.Clinton, for his part, has offered 'a bridge to the 21st century,' acampaign vision of consummate banality. It is constructed of anendless array of the tiniest of welfare state tinkerings, up to andincluding flex-time to take Fido to the vet. And it is workingsplendidly.Clinton is nothing if not a master at reading his times. Heunderstands that quiescent times call for minimalist politics. Thatis his calling and his campaign (an easy twinning, Clinton havingnever distinguished between the two).In the post-Cold War world, the presidency was destined tobe a much smaller office than it had been through Depression, WorldWar and Cold War. Clinton, champion downsiz\er, already hasfulfilled that destiny, turning this presidential race -- withDole's acquiescence, mind you -- into one of uncommon inconsequence.
