In a bewildering presidential primary season in which changes inmomentum have been many and predictions have proven problematic, onelesson seems clear: independent voters are propelling big wins.
Large-scale disaffection with the Bush administration, accordingto experts, is moving thousands of voters to the center. In contrastto the past two presidential races, voters who identify themselvesas independents have edged Democrats as the largest group of voters,while Republicans are at a historic low.
And the independents are jostling the field.
The unlikely resurgence of Sen. John McCain and the prolongedwinning streak of Sen. Barack Obama both stem, in part, from thesupport of these voters.
'The suspicion is that this year, the independents are obviouslycritical,' said Michael Dimock, associate director of research atthe Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
'In that sense you can say that they are sort of a bellwether,'Dimock said. 'The way they come down on issues like Iraq could bereally critical to who wins the elections.'
According to a Pew Center average of monthly polls, 33.7 percentof those surveyed identified themselves as independents in 2007.Those who identified themselves as Democrats were next in line, at32.9 percent. Republicans have been losing voters since 2003 andfinished last year with 25.4 percent of those polled - a historiclow in the time that the center has been surveying voters.
The independents' influence easily can be seen in campaign adsand in the candidates' speeches, Dimock said. Every candidate, inhis or her own way, claims to stand for 'change,' a key desire amongindependents.
'(Independents) tend to be the most frustrated toward the statusquo of party politics,' Dimock said. 'So you're seeing thecandidates talk about what they could do to reach across partypolitics.'
The group also tends to include voters who weren't die-hard partysupporters to begin with, Dimock said. They tend to be younger andless addicted to politics than party faithful.
In this election year, they tend to be motivated by anger at theBush administration, which, experts say, has been the most divisivepresidency in the history of polling. They also are dissatisfiedwith how fiercely partisan the parties have become.
Consider Craig and Jennifer Howie, of Longmont, Colo., whoidentify themselves as independent voters. Their profile fits nicelyinto what polling experts are seeing of the group.
The couple thinks the current political system isn't working.They feel lied to about the war in Iraq, want the military to focuson finding Osama bin Laden and wish for dramatic reform of thehealth care system.
They both like McCain, the Arizona Republican senator, but areleaning toward Obama, the Illinois Democratic senator locked in aclose race with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
'If Obama is the nominee, I'm definitely voting for him,' CraigHowie said. But if it's Clinton, the competitive triathlete andcoach says he's unsure.
'It's a tough one,' Howie said. 'It's pretty much 50-50 rightnow. But I'm leaning more toward McCain.'
They see trouble in Clinton's health care plan, which requiresenrollment in health insurance, while Obama's is voluntary.
Some months, every penny matters for the young couple, and thethought of required coverage is off-putting.
'When I listen to them talk I hear Obama say that, 'This is whatwe are going to do to change America,' ' Jennifer Howie said,stressing the word. 'When I listen to Clinton, I hear, 'This is whatI am going to do.' It's all: 'me me me.''
